Worse for Gold Than Active War

The author argues gold’s recent corrective rebound is ending and technicals plus fundamentals point to further downside for XAUUSD. Gold and silver moved to new weekly lows; silver broke short-term support while miners (GDXJ) plunged nearly 7% from monthly highs. The piece stresses that the chronic, naval-focused Strait disruption (5–16% capacity, ~13 million bpd shut in, ~0.5 billion barrels lost) is more damaging to global oil supplies and economic growth than acute strikes, which strengthens the dollar structurally. That dynamic keeps inflation and Fed policy constrained while removing the acute “safe-haven” shocks that typically lift gold—leaving gold exposed to both a strong dollar and sticky oil-driven inflation. A 1.15% intraday bounce is characterized as emotional relief, not a trend reversal; the outlook is bearish for gold in the coming weeks.