Will Bitcoin Hit $50,000 or $100,000 First? Kalshi Traders Put It at 17 to 83

Prediction market data from Kalshi indicates that traders assign an 83% probability to Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before dropping to $50,000, while the probability of touching $50,000 first has declined from 57% in June to 17%. The shift in sentiment comes as Bitcoin rebounded 20% over the past month to trade around $75,600, recovering from its late June low near $58,524. Despite the strong preference for upside over a major crash, prediction markets indicate that extreme price movements remain unlikely in the near term. A separate Kalshi contract assigns just a 22% probability to Bitcoin touching $100,000 before December and a 29% chance before January 2027. Open interest across prediction markets points to a consensus year-end close near $81,000, aligning closely with the asset's 50-week moving average. Market participants note that reaching $100,000 requires Bitcoin to clear key overhead resistance levels at $82,300, $87,497, and $90,000, supported by robust spot ETF inflows and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Conversely, a drop to $50,000 would demand a break below realized price support near $53,600 amid potential macro tightening.