Why More Venezuelan Oil Won’t Solve America’s Gasoline Problem

The United States has secured agreements granting access to Venezuelan oil reserves containing over 65 billion barrels, aiming to boost crude supplies and replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. However, energy analysts warn that increased Venezuelan heavy crude shipments will do little to quickly alleviate high American gasoline and diesel prices. While Venezuelan output is targeted to rise from 1.25 million barrels per day to over 1.5 million bpd, expanding production further will require years of capital investment, extensive workovers, and infrastructure upgrades. More importantly, the primary constraint on retail fuel prices remains severe global and domestic refining bottlenecks rather than raw crude availability. U.S. refinery utilization reached 97.4% with crude inputs near 17.4 million bpd, operating near maximum capacity. At the same time, Middle Eastern refining output remains curtailed due to regional conflict. With high refining cracks and persistent capacity limits, substituting crude grades offers modest cost relief for Gulf Coast refiners but cannot swiftly resolve the broader refined-product shortfall.