Why analyst expects Bitcoin ETF will follow gold's ‘triumph and pain' pattern

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas argued that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs may be following gold ETFs’ long-term “triumph and pain” pattern: big early gains, deep drawdowns, then eventual recovery to new highs. He said BTC ETF demand should return stronger over time, even after heavy outflows and a sharp Bitcoin price decline from above $126K to around $64K. The article notes spot BTC ETF outflows reached $7B in May and June 2026, while flows have recently turned positive for three straight sessions. Long-term holder supply is still not showing net-selling pressure, which supports the $60K area as a key support. However, renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and a rise in oil above $80 could keep pressure on Bitcoin’s upside, suggesting broader energy and geopolitical shocks may delay a breakout.