Where Will the S&P 500 Be in 10 Years? Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller Weighs In

Nobel laureate Robert Shiller warns that elevated valuations signal weak S&P 500 returns over the next decade. Using his CAPE metric — which recently approached levels last seen in the dot‑com bubble (around 40, currently near 38) — Shiller’s model projects average annual total returns of just 1.3% (nominal annualized -0.7%) for the S&P 500, placing the index near 6,381 by the end of 2035. The article notes the S&P’s strong past decade (282% total return) and cautions that AI-driven concentration among a few winners could weigh on broader market returns. Shiller recommends looking for value opportunities and international markets (Europe and Japan show more attractive CAPE readings) as potential ways to improve long‑term returns. Overall, the piece is a bearish caution on prospective S&P 500 performance and a nudge toward value and international exposure.