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When are Eurozone Prelim HICP inflation, Q1 GDP data and how could they affect EUR/USD?

Eurozone preliminary HICP (April) and Q1 GDP (flash) are due at 09:00 GMT; markets expect HICP to tick up to 2.9% YoY (from 2.6%) while core inflation holds at 2.3%, and flash GDP to show 0.2% QoQ growth with annual growth slowing to 0.9%. The note warns that if figures meet expectations EUR/USD may be flat, but geopolitical risk (Middle East tensions) and a firmer US dollar — reinforced by a hawkish Fed tone after an 8-4 FOMC vote to keep rates at 3.5%-3.75% — could pressure the euro. ECB is widely expected to hold rates but signal possible further hikes if energy-driven inflation rises. Technicals show EUR/USD around 1.1680 with a 14-day RSI near 49 and trading around the 50-day EMA (1.1678), implying consolidation with downside risk toward the March low near 1.1411. Overall, macro prints, central-bank messaging and risk sentiment will likely drive near-term EUR/USD moves.

Category

EUR/USD

Sentiment

Neutral

Event

Market commentary

Reading time

1 min