Whale's Insight: Every New Fed Chair, Every Bitcoin Crash

The article warns that every past Federal Reserve chair transition has coincided with major Bitcoin drawdowns (−77% to −84%), and flags the May 15 Fed handover to Warsh as a significant macro risk point. With CPI at 3.3%, oil near $115 and a prolonged Hormuz blockade, the author sees greater macro pressure and a plausible 65–70% BTC correction to $38k–$44k if historical patterns repeat. On-chain supply is at a seven-year low and whales are accumulating, but demand has stalled; upside would require a sustained weekly close above $80k and renewed institutional ETF inflows (e.g., IBIT). The piece also notes tech capex anxiety and Robinhood’s crypto revenue plunge (−47%) as factors that can compress risk appetite and weigh on BTC and other high-beta assets.