Week Ahead: Geopolitics, Warsh, Nvidia and Data to Test Markets

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a change in Fed leadership to Kevin Warsh, and Nvidia’s earnings dominate the week-ahead market outlook. Elevated oil prices (above $100) and renewed hostilities are keeping risk-off episodes alive, supporting the dollar and higher Treasury yields. Warsh’s early communications and Wednesday’s April Fed minutes are key for rate expectations (markets price ~13bp of tightening by December, one 25bp hike by April 2027). Nvidia’s report is a binary catalyst that could either extend the US equity rally (indices at fresh ATHs) or trigger broad risk-off if demand softens. Currency-specific risks include USD/JPY strength (above 158) and pressure on the pound amid UK political unrest; Euro performance will depend on upcoming PMIs. Overall market tone is cautious and mixed.