We checked 6 years of bitcoin data. The NFP report isn't big price mover

Historical data analysis spanning the past six years indicates that the U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) employment report has consistently been a non-event for bitcoin intraday day traders. Since January 2020, bitcoin has posted an average move of just 2.1% on NFP release days, a figure that is directly in line with the cryptocurrency's typical daily volatility observed on regular, non-NFP trading days. Across 79 total NFP releases analyzed over this multi-year timeframe, bitcoin's directional performance has produced an almost exact 50/50 split, closing higher on 39 days and falling on 40 days. Although rare outsized moves occurred during extreme market conditions—such as an 11.4% gain in February 2022 and a 7.8% decline in March 2022—the data shows negligible standalone predictive value for short-term crypto trading strategies. Heading into the upcoming report, markets are pricing in roughly a 65% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate reduction, against expectations of 56,000 added jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Analysts note that while NFP data rarely drives direct BTC price swings, indirect transmission through sharp fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields could potentially impact crypto assets.