War or Peace, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Chip Industry Just Learned Depending on One Route for 30% of Its Helium Is Risky

A helium shortage tied to disruptions at Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility — offline since early March 2026 due to attacks and a Strait of Hormuz blockade — is exposing a new choke point in semiconductor supply chains. Qatar supplies ~30% of global helium, used in EUV lithography, wafer cooling and leak detection; shortages could constrain HBM production at Samsung and SK Hynix and, in turn, limit Nvidia Blackwell GPU shipments. Near-term fixes (on-site recycling, tool redesign, multiyear contracts) mitigate but don’t eliminate the risk: recycling recovers ~90–95% of helium, TSMC reportedly has 4–6 months of inventory and multiyear supply deals, and new helium projects are years away. Market implications: industrial-gas suppliers and recyclers (Linde, Air Products, L'Air Liquide) are likely beneficiaries of higher helium prices and demand for recovery systems, while chipmakers tied to external HBM supply face downstream production risk until shipments normalize (which could take months after the Strait reopens).