War-Fueled Inflation Boosts 2027 COLA Projection to 4.2%, Bolstering Gold Hedge

Surging April CPI at 3.8% YoY—the hottest since 2023—driven by 17.9% energy and 28.4% gasoline spikes amid the Iran war, has lifted 2027 Social Security COLA forecasts to 4.2% from an initial 2.8% projection on May 9. This adds ~$87 monthly to the average $2,071 check but erodes real purchasing power, with 57% of seniors skipping medical care and real hourly earnings down 0.3% YoY. RSM warns CPI could peak at 4.5% if energy persists, delaying rate cuts and supporting gold (XAUUSD) as markets decouple from consumer pressures.