Wall Street Thinks Trumpflation Has Peaked, but There's an Unpleasant Surprise Looming for President Trump and Investors

The article argues that Wall Street may be underestimating the persistence of Trump-driven inflation (“Trumpflation”), even as the S&P 500 and other major U.S. indexes trade near highs. It says the initial surge in inflation was fueled by the Iran conflict and a spike in crude oil, but stresses that the impact is spreading beyond energy into transportation, production, groceries, and other consumer goods through higher input costs and supply-chain rerouting. The piece highlights that while oil has fallen below $70 a barrel from over $110, core inflation measures such as Core PCE are still rising, and the Fed’s dot plot suggests policymakers are becoming more hawkish, with rate hikes back on the table. The market implication is bearish for richly valued equities, especially AI and other growth stocks that depend on cheap capital and strong spending growth.