Vitol CEO sees China oil demand picking up, flags unsustainable gap

Vitol CEO Russell Hardy shared key insights into physical energy flows at the APPEC conference in Singapore, forecasting that China's crude oil import demand is poised to accelerate. Hardy described the current 5 to 6 million barrels per day gap between China's 2025 and 2026 crude imports as unsustainable, indicating an imminent rebound in Chinese purchasing activity. However, he also noted that aggregate global oil demand could contract by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026 compared to 2025. On the supply and logistics front, Hardy highlighted ongoing vulnerabilities across vital Middle Eastern shipping lanes. Disruptions around the Bab el-Mandeb strait have impacted roughly 2 to 3 million barrels per day of Saudi crude exports, while approximately 10 million barrels per day of oil and refined products continue to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, global product inventories continue to draw down, signaling persistent refined product consumption against a backdrop of tight logistical bottlenecks.