Veteran economist Gary Shilling says recession is ‘almost inevitable’ — stocks could fall 30%. Here’s what to do now

Veteran economist Gary Shilling warns a U.S. recession is “almost inevitable” by year-end and predicts the S&P 500 could fall about 30%, arguing markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable to a slowdown. He cites weakening consumer spending, a low personal savings rate, frozen housing activity, rising energy costs and sluggish non‑AI business investment. Valuation gauges — the Shiller CAPE (~40.11 on May 4) and the Buffett Indicator (232.6%, record high) — signal elevated risk of a sharp correction. The article stresses market-impact implications (job losses, tighter credit) and recommends defensive positioning: higher cash buffers, hedges such as gold, diversification into alternatives, and small crypto allocations for non‑correlated exposure.