VanEck Mid-April 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck

VanEck finds two historically bullish on-chain signals for Bitcoin in mid-April 2026: funding rates have turned negative (7‑day avg. -1.8%), and realized volatility has cooled (56% → 41%) as geopolitical risk eased. Historically, negative funding windows have preceded stronger 30‑day returns (+11.5% vs. +4.5% overall; -5% funding associated with +19.4% 30‑day gains). A clustered hash-rate and difficulty drawdown (hash rate at the 16th percentile over 30 days) has also tended to preface above‑average rallies—6 of 7 prior episodes saw BTC higher 90 days later (median +37.7%). Increased spending by long‑dated holders suggests some profit‑taking, signaling cyclical reset dynamics rather than outright capitulation. Overall, VanEck interprets these data and flows as net bullish for BTC in the coming weeks to months, implying elevated odds of meaningful upside on short‑to‑medium horizons.