USD/MXN Forecast: Mexican peso shows signs of weakness ahead of the Fed decision

The Mexican peso has shown moderate weakness, with USD/MXN rising over 0.3% in the last two sessions as markets price monetary-policy uncertainty ahead of the Fed decision. Banco de México has started cutting rates (7.00% → 6.75%) while April inflation eased to 4.53% YoY, suggesting a less restrictive path at home. The Fed is largely expected to hold rates at 3.75%, keeping U.S. policy relatively restrictive and supporting the dollar. A narrowing interest-rate differential and prolonged U.S. rate stability could increase demand for USD assets and sustain upside pressure on USD/MXN. Technically, indicators (RSI, MACD) are improving and price is testing the upper boundary of a multi-month bearish channel; key levels to watch are resistance ~18.07, intermediate barrier ~17.56 and support ~17.10. A decisive break above 18.07 or 17.56 would favor a bullish shift for USD/MXN, while a return to 17.10 would resume the downtrend.