USD/MXN Forecast: JP Morgan Says Stay Bullish on the Mexican Peso

J.P. Morgan turned more constructive on the Mexican peso, saying improving domestic growth, attractive carry and resilient trade flows support MXN. The bank expects USD/MXN to drift lower over the forecast horizon, targeting 17.35 by September 2026 and 17.30 through June 2027. It raised Mexico’s 2026 GDP forecast to 1.2% from 1.0% after stronger April GDP, a rebound in construction and solid services data. J.P. Morgan also sees Banxico holding rates at 6.5% for the next year, which keeps carry supportive, while the successful USMCA review reduces policy uncertainty. Overall, the note is bullish for MXN and bearish for USD/MXN, implying gradual peso appreciation rather than a sharp move.