USD/MXN Forecast: Dollar Bounce Faces Selling Pressure Near 17.40 - 15 May 2026

The analyst says USD/MXN traded noisily amid Middle East tensions and unclear bond market demand. Despite rising U.S. rates, the peso often outperforms due to trade links and higher local rates. Key technical resistance sits near 17.40 — reinforced by the 50-day EMA — and the author favors shorting rallies, viewing the pair as bearish over the longer term. Market impact: traders may sell USD/MXN on strength around 17.40, targeting the 17.00 psychological level, which would signal peso appreciation and affect FX positioning and carry trades.