US Tariffs Threaten Russian Palladium Supply as Spot Prices Fall to $1,370

The U.S. Department of Commerce has finalized prohibitive tariffs on Russian palladium, including a 109.1% countervailing duty and 132.83% anti-dumping duty, pending ITC approval. This follows Commerzbank’s May 19 assessment that a structural supply deficit remains intact due to mine constraints in South Africa and Russia, low above-ground stocks, and limited near-term substitution. Russia’s Nornickel supplies roughly 40% of global palladium, and U.S. imports reached 27.6 tons in 2024. Spot palladium has declined 16% year-to-date to around $1,370/oz, yet analysts warn any supply shock could trigger sharp upside and expose automakers to higher costs.