US leading index for July +0.2% vs +0.1% expected

The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index rose 0.2% in July, beating expectations for a 0.1% gain and reversing June’s revised 0.1% decline. The six-month growth rate turned positive for the first time in more than four years, signaling that US economic activity may continue expanding at a moderate pace. The report suggests growth is increasingly supported by business investment, particularly in AI, while elevated living costs could weigh on consumer spending, especially among lower- and middle-income households. The Conference Board maintained its GDP growth forecasts of 1.9% for both 2026 and 2027. The data is mildly supportive for risk assets and the broader US economic outlook, though it also reinforces a mixed backdrop where resilience in business spending coexists with consumer strain.