US-Iran conflict impacts Alcoa, Netflix earnings amid Bitcoin stability concerns

The U.S.-Iran conflict is adding geopolitical risk that could disrupt corporate earnings and energy/supply chains while prediction markets show Bitcoin traders overwhelmingly pricing in near-term stability. Polymarket contracts place >$68,000 odds at ~99.9% for April 16 and other April contracts at ~99–100% YES, with combined 24-hour volume across Bitcoin contracts of about $1.2M. However, a thin order book (only $301K to move the April 16 market by 5 percentage points) and a 15% expected move signal potential for rapid repricing if the geopolitical situation or Fed guidance changes. Key market risks to monitor include Fed statements and any escalation or de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran that could trigger sharp Bitcoin moves or shift institutional flows.