US-Iran Ceasefire Ends, Bitcoin $60K Dip Odds Edge to 1.4% on Thin Volumes

Prediction markets remain largely unmoved by escalating US-Iran tensions, placing Bitcoin's odds of dipping to $60,000 in April at ~1.4% on Polymarket, up slightly from 1.2% amid the prior Israel-Lebanon ceasefire collapse but down from 4% a week ago. Trading volumes stay low at ~$1,192 USDC daily, with just $2,754 needed to shift odds by 5 points, signaling thin liquidity and low conviction for a selloff. Traders appear to dismiss isolated geopolitical flares absent broader risk-off triggers like oil spikes, pointing to limited near-term downside pressure as the market nears resolution in ~7 days.