US Holiday Retail Sales Projected to Top $1 Trillion Driven by Inflation

U.S. holiday retail sales are forecast to surpass $1 trillion for the first time this season, advancing 4.5% year-over-year according to Bain & Company. Physical stores are expected to drive about 70% of volume, while e-commerce continues expanding. Growth is heavily supported by persistent inflation and a $43 billion, or 17%, annual increase in tax refunds, even as September consumer confidence fell to its lowest point since 2014. Deloitte separately projects holiday spending could reach $1.7 trillion, while Adobe expects Buy Now, Pay Later transactions to reach a record $21.3 billion.