UK’s Gradual EU Reset Reshapes Growth Outlook, Rabobank Analysis Finds

Rabobank’s new note argues the UK’s step-by-step reset with the EU will shape medium‑term growth and market pricing. The bank expects only gradual improvements in trade and regulatory alignment—supporting modest GDP gains of roughly 1.5–1.8% annually over the next two to three years—rather than a quick payoff. For markets, Rabobank sees sterling likely to remain range‑bound versus the euro and dollar absent clear progress on customs facilitation, qualifications recognition and financial‑services equivalence. UK equities may trade at a slight discount to EU peers while smaller firms face slower gains from the reset. Investors should watch UK‑EU summits and regulatory milestones as potential catalysts for currency and asset repricing.