UK Retail Sales jump 0.7% MoM in March, Surpassing Forecasts and Boosting Economic Hopes

UK retail sales surged 0.7% month-on-month in March (vs. 0.2% forecast), according to ONS data published April 19, 2025, signaling stronger consumer spending and lifting hopes for GDP growth. The surprise boost sparked immediate market moves: GBP/USD climbed about 0.3% and the FTSE 100 gained ~0.4% led by retail names, while 10-year gilt yields ticked up ~2bp to 4.12% as investors scaled back expectations for near-term Bank of England easing. Economists now see Q1 GDP upside and the probability of a June rate cut fell from ~70% to ~60%. The report highlights broad-based gains across clothing (+2.3%), department stores (+1.8%) and household goods (+1.5%), with online sales up 0.8%. While the data supports a more resilient UK outlook and a firmer pound, analysts caution the gain may partly reflect one-off factors (early Easter, discounts, energy support), so markets will watch April data for confirmation.