UBS cuts palladium, platinum forecasts amid less tight market, economy risks

UBS cut its palladium and platinum price forecasts by $200/oz, trimming palladium to $1,600/oz (from $1,800) and platinum to $2,300/oz (from $2,500). The bank cited weakening demand fundamentals, economic growth risks and the automotive shift to electric vehicles that threatens around 80–85% of palladium consumption tied to gasoline autocatalysts. UBS warned palladium could move into a structural surplus absent meaningful new end‑markets. For platinum, UBS noted easing physical tightness — three‑month lease rates fell to ~6% from nearly 19% early in 2026, ETF holdings dropped ~300,000 oz to 2.9m oz, and some Nymex stock moved to Europe — but kept a moderately constructive view supported by an expected rise in gold and stronger Chinese imports. Overall, UBS’s note signals downside pressure for palladium and reduced bullishness for platinum, though platinum still has some supportive flows.