UAE OPEC Exit Risks Price War as Hormuz Shortfall Holds Brent Above $103

Brent crude holds above $103/bbl amid a 10-13 million bpd Strait of Hormuz shortfall, with UAE's May 1 OPEC exit freeing it to tap ~5 million bpd spare capacity post-disruptions. The crisis began March 5 when Saudi Aramco rerouted exports via its 5 million bpd East-West pipeline to Yanbu, escalating to shutdowns of Safaniya and Zuluf fields by March 9, cutting over 2 million bpd. UAE accelerates $55 billion investments toward 5 million bpd by 2027, citing diversification (energy <25% GDP) and export security, potentially weakening OPEC cohesion and sparking competition once the strait reopens.