TSMC Capacity Limits Cap NVIDIA Near-Term Growth Potential

On May 20 2026 hedge fund manager Gavin Baker stated that TSMC’s deliberate capacity expansion remains the key constraint on NVIDIA’s revenue upside. NVIDIA posted full-year fiscal 2026 revenue of $215.94 billion and fourth-quarter revenue of $68.13 billion, including $62.31 billion from data-center sales at a 75 percent non-GAAP gross margin. Baker noted that unconstrained foundry supply could theoretically lift sales toward a $2 trillion run rate, yet warned that rapid capacity additions risk triggering an AI-infrastructure overbuild and subsequent boom-bust cycle. Investors are advised to track TSMC’s capex guidance and CoWoS packaging ramp as the clearest leading indicators of whether the current disciplined supply environment will persist.