TS Lombard strategist sees attractive opportunity in shorting USD/JPY

TS Lombard strategist Daniel Von Ahlen recommends shorting USD/JPY, arguing the risk-reward is attractive as Bank of Japan policy normalisation, looser Japanese fiscal policy and stronger domestic macro should bolster the yen. He cites lower energy prices from a US‑Iran endgame, the risk of a US growth soft patch in Q2–Q3, attractive valuations, rising JPY rates and a meaningful buildup of short USD/JPY positions as supporting the trade. Von Ahlen warns the main downside is a recent softening in inflation momentum. Market impact: a successful trade thesis would put downward pressure on USD/JPY (yen appreciation), influence FX positioning flows and could affect rate differentials and cross‑asset risk dynamics as traders adjust exposure.