Trump Threats, Hormuz Reclosure Reverse Oil's 10% Drop

Oil prices rebounded sharply on June 22 after Iran reclosed the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump threatened fresh military action, reversing the supply relief from the June 18 U.S.-Iran interim peace deal. Crude had plunged more than 10% since mid-June, with Brent hitting a three-month low of $78.31 and WTI at $76.14 by June 19 as tankers resumed flows following the deal's signing. The renewed blockade shifted market focus back to supply risks, pushing Fed rate-hike probabilities to 62% for 2026 as inflation concerns resurfaced. Recovery in flows had been expected to take months even before the reversal, with insurers remaining cautious throughout.