Trump Eyes Deeper Allied Blockade After $800M Iran Oil Smuggle Bust

President Trump is weighing a prolonged naval blockade of Iran with allies into May after maritime intelligence exposed an $800M smuggling scheme using spoofed tankers, as Strait of Hormuz traffic lingers at 6-7 vessels daily versus 140 pre-conflict. Exports have plunged 70% to 567,000 bpd from March's 1.85 million bpd, leaving 12-22 days of storage and risking 1.5 million bpd production cuts by mid-May. Rejecting Tehran's April 29 reopening offer and ordering extended preparations on April 29-30 sustains supply risks, with Brent at $120/bbl and WTI volatile near $105.