‘Traders Need to Be Really Careful Here’: Schwab on the Fed Decision and Powell’s Uncertain Future

Charles Schwab warned investors to be cautious ahead of the Fed’s decision, saying market reaction will hinge on Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference rather than a rate move — the Fed is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%. Powell’s uncertain future (Polymarket pricing ~99.5% he’s out as Chair by May 31, 2026) and sticky headline inflation elevate the risk of volatility. Corporate earnings largely beat expectations (e.g., GM, Starbucks, UPS), but many companies are withholding stronger forward guidance, which Schwab attributes to oil and geopolitics. Macro data are mixed: Q1 GDP rebounded to 2.0%, April consumer confidence surprised higher, while March PCE showed headline inflation accelerating to 3.5% YoY and core PCE steady at 3.2%. Overall the piece frames a cautious, mixed outlook where market direction depends on Fed signaling and Powell’s stance, suggesting traders should reduce position size and monitor guidance and inflation prints closely.