Top Economist Warns The US Economy 'Isn't Just Soft, It's Struggling' As Trump's Iran War Threatens To Push America Closer To A Recession

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi warned the U.S. economy is “struggling,” saying weaker Q1 GDP, soft housing and capital spending, falling real disposable income and lower savings raise recession risks — risks that could be amplified if the US‑Israel conflict with Iran further disrupts the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil prices from disrupted shipments could reignite inflation (April CPI +3.8% YoY) even as growth slows, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy path and likely pressuring the US SP 500. Fed officials, including Neel Kashkari, emphasize inflation remains the primary concern, meaning markets may face volatility as investors price in both slower growth and persistent price pressures.