This strategist is using prediction-market shifts to calculate what happens when an Iran deal is announced

Citadel Securities strategist Frank Flight uses shifts in prediction-market odds to model the market impact of a near-term U.S.–Iran peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He estimates a full reopening by end-July would push oil prices lower, trim 10-year Treasury yields by about 12.5 basis points, lift the S&P 500 roughly 1.71% and weaken the dollar index ~0.53%. Equity winners would likely be cyclicals such as retailers, homebuilders and airlines, while momentum and AI/semiconductor leaders (e.g., SOXX exposure) could see pressure in a broadening market. The note implies a risk-on impulse for stocks as geopolitical risk premiums recede, with knock-on effects across yields, currencies and commodity markets (gold is trading around the mid-$4,500s per ounce in the piece).