This dot-com survivor says AI build-out is more like 1997 than 1999 — and still urges investors to hold more cash

Dan Niles, veteran fund manager, says the current AI-driven rally in chip stocks resembles the 1997 internet-infrastructure build-out rather than the 1999 dot‑com bubble. He views short‑term chip valuations as stretched but sees longer‑term upside, citing increased value for CPUs (notably Intel). Niles warns that many stocks that have ramped higher could drop 30%–50% by early next year and advises investors to hold substantial cash. The piece highlights market divergences — equities near record highs, oil sharply higher, and rising Treasury yields — underscoring elevated systemic risk. Overall, the article signals a cautious, risk‑off stance for investors amid continued AI-led momentum.