Think the rally is safe? This elite market-timing indicator says a correction is overdue.

Mark Hulbert argues that the declining gold‑to‑platinum ratio signals weakening prospects for the U.S. stock market over the next 12 months. Citing an academic study that found the ratio outperforms most return predictors (based on 1975–2013 data), he shows the ratio has fallen since last November — a decline that began nearly a year ago — which historically presages weaker S&P 500 returns a year out. Hulbert notes the drop in a separate geopolitical risk index (GPR) — currently under half its early‑March peak and under a third of its June 2025 high — consistent with the ratio’s movement. While the ratio is a poor short‑term (one‑to‑two month) guide, its decline is a warning the market may be “living on borrowed time,” implying downside risk for equities over the coming year.