The Probability of a Stock Market Crash Under Donald Trump Is Climbing -- and the Blame May Lie With the President Himself

The article warns that U.S. policy actions under President Trump — notably the Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz — have driven a sharp rise in oil and gasoline prices, boosting headline inflation and potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to abandon its easing cycle. That shift, coming as the S&P 500 sits at historically rich valuations (Shiller CAPE >39), increases the probability of a significant market downturn. The piece connects geopolitical-driven energy shocks, rising inflation metrics, and the prospect of Fed rate hikes as the primary market risks that could undermine the S&P 500’s rally.