The next recession could actually be a win for stocks — if you can tune out the market noise

Mark Hulbert argues that investors worry too much about recessions and should instead focus on corporate profit margins and price-to-earnings multiples, which historically drive stock prices more than GDP forecasts. Using evidence from Ned Davis Research and a thought experiment by StoneX’s Vincent Deluard, the column shows that recessions do not always coincide with bear markets and that market timing based on GDP offers little advantage over buy-and-hold. Hulbert notes geopolitical risks and rising oil prices as background factors but emphasizes that margins and multiples are the more important variables for S&P 500 performance going forward.