The crypto IPO wave has one big problem: Bitcoin is still in charge

The article argues the 2025 crypto IPO wave — led by Circle and Bullish — exposed a structural issue: exchange operators remain highly correlated with Bitcoin price and trading activity. Kaiko analysis and recent market events (Gemini’s post‑IPO collapse and Kraken freezing its IPO) show exchange revenues and valuations surge with Bitcoin rallies and compress quickly when BTC stalls. Stablecoin and payments companies like Circle, tied to USDC and interest income, are more plausibly decoupled from Bitcoin-driven trading cycles and may earn premium, infrastructure‑style multiples. Public markets will reprice exchange listings rapidly if quarterly results show revenue concentrated in spot trading fees; successful public exchanges will need diversified, durable revenue streams (derivatives, custody, staking, institutional services) to survive Bitcoin drawdowns. Until audited evidence of such diversification appears, Bitcoin remains the sector’s ultimate underwriter.