The AI Chip Sector Is Soaring Without Nvidia, and the Money Flow Explains Why

Nvidia (NVDA.OQ) is trailing the broader chip rally in 2026 despite remaining volatile and popular with some derivatives traders. Options open-interest has shifted modestly toward puts, perpetual-futures positioning on Hyperliquid shows net-long retail/smart-money but slight whale short exposure, and Nvidia’s Chaikin Money Flow has dropped below zero — signaling institutional net selling even as the price has been flat-to-up. The divergence (NVDA vs. semiconductor index moving opposite on ~50% of sessions over the past 50 days) and positive CMF readings for peers like AMD help explain why the sector is rallying without Nvidia; a break below the CMF trendline would confirm deeper institutional outflows and likely prolong Nvidia’s underperformance versus rivals.