Tesla's $29B Capex Signals AI Push as Robotaxi Doubts Mount

As of June 18, Tesla shares slipped slightly with investors scrutinizing $29.4 billion in projected 2026 capex as the key signal for AI progress. The story evolved from Piper Sandler's June 14 bullish note claiming Level 4 autonomy to June 16-17 regulatory scrutiny by U.S. senators and bearish calls labeling robotaxi a 'stock pump' with only 31 unsupervised vehicles. Bank of America highlighted the 69-vehicle Texas fleet priced 20% below rivals, while Wolfe Research tied future momentum to missed robotaxi milestones. Negative free cash flow is now expected through year-end.