Tesla merger with SpaceX won't save investors, top analyst says

BNP Paribas argues that speculation about a Tesla-SpaceX merger is not a near-term спасing catalyst for Tesla investors. The bank kept an underperform rating and $280 price target, citing Tesla’s heavy cash burn, rising capex needs, and likely missed KPIs in Robotaxi and Optimus over the next two years. It also said SpaceX’s own cash burn, regulatory hurdles, and the need for multi-jurisdiction approvals and shareholder support make a merger difficult and slow. Even if a deal eventually occurs, BNP says the implied takeout premium would likely be far below Tesla’s current share price and could dilute shareholders further because the combined entity would still need outside capital. The note suggests the market may be overestimating how quickly a merger could unlock value.