Tesla Hovers Near $395 as SpaceX Merger Talk Persists Amid Dilution Fears

Tesla shares remain under pressure near $395 after Jefferies cut its price target to $375, citing dilution risks from a potential SpaceX tie-up that is turning the stock into a valuation proxy. The narrative began with strong May China sales and a JPMorgan upgrade in early June, shifted to excitement around SpaceX’s June 12 IPO at a $1.75-1.8 trillion valuation, and has since centered on merger odds of 49% on Kalshi and 80% per Wedbush. Despite the hype, Tesla is down 11% year-to-date and now faces additional pressure from SpaceX’s 32% post-IPO pullback and weakening fundamentals.