Tesla Hits $445 on Robotaxi Surge, Faces $25B Capex and Valuation Scrutiny

Tesla shares have rocketed 26% in the past month to around $445, boosting market cap to $1.6-1.7 trillion amid robotaxi enthusiasm, but analysts flag stretched P/E of 400 and looming negative FCF from $25B+ 2026 capex. Coverage kicked off May 9 pitting Tesla against Rivian and Lucid in the $8-10T robotaxi market, spotlighting Uber's $1.25B order for 50,000 Rivian R2s and Tesla's Cybercab plans, xAI ties, and scale. May 12 Q1 results widened the gap: Tesla's $22.39B revenue, 21.1% auto margins, $1.444B FCF, and 1.28M FSD subscribers (+51% YoY) vs. Rivian's $1.381B revenue and $62M auto loss.