Tax Refunds Are Up, But Many Americans Aren’t Feeling It

The piece examines how the 2025 Trump tax law has modestly raised average tax refunds — about $350 more year-over-year — but many Americans don’t feel the benefit amid rising gasoline prices, AI-driven job concerns and economic uncertainty. IRS and Treasury data show roughly 70% of taxpayers received refunds (vs. 67% last year) and the average refund rose to $3,462 through early April from $3,116. While larger refunds may provide a small consumer-spending boost (a modest stimulus that could support US equities), weak perception of gains and political backlash could mute any market lift. The net market implication is limited and uncertain: incremental positive demand support offset by confidence and geopolitical/price pressures.