Stonegate Capital Partners Updates Coverage on Fold Holdings Inc. (FLD) 1Q26

Stonegate updated coverage after Fold Holdings’ 1Q26, highlighting bitcoin-driven weakness in transaction activity that pushed revenue down 21.1% y/y to $5.6M and transaction volume down 32% y/y to $172M. Management sees the quarter as market pressure on transaction-linked revenue but not a change to the core thesis: Fold is shifting toward platform-led monetization with product launches, opex discipline, and credit-card rollout as the primary FY26 catalyst. Capital-structure simplification (extinguishing convertible notes) improves strategic flexibility while retaining bitcoin treasury exposure. February marked a trough for core KPIs with early improvement as bitcoin recovered, suggesting revenue could re-accelerate if crypto conditions normalize and new products (1000+ cards live; ~80K waitlist) scale.