Stocks Are Partying Like the War Is Over, Bonds Not So Much

U.S. equities pushed higher as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs for a third straight session, reflecting investor optimism as progress toward a ceasefire in the Persian Gulf eased geopolitical risk. The rally contrasts with weakness in the bond market: muni and long-term corporate bond ETFs remain below their prewar levels, while the 10‑year Treasury yield rose to 4.244% (versus a 2026 closing low of 3.961% on Feb. 27). Traders are skeptical about near‑term Fed rate cuts after oil-driven inflation pressures—Brent crude is still more than 50% above December levels despite a recent pullback near $90 a barrel—supporting higher yields and weighing on bond prices. Overall, the piece highlights a bullish backdrop for stocks but persistent bearish dynamics in fixed income, driven by energy-driven inflation and central‑bank rate expectations.