Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock index futures traded broadly lower following the Labor Day holiday weekend, driven by unfavorable historical seasonal trends and surging energy prices. Polymarket prediction contracts indicated heavily bearish sentiment for the S&P 500 open, pricing in merely a 28% probability of a higher start to the trading session. Historical data further compounded cautious positioning, as the Tuesday following Labor Day has registered declines across major indices, including the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones, for nine consecutive years. In early trading, Dow Jones futures fell 0.77%, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.24%, and Russell 2000 futures dropped 0.49%, while Nasdaq 100 futures posted a modest 0.16% advance. Market pressures were amplified by escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which propelled Brent crude futures up 1.70% to $98.65 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude up 2.82% to $94.06 per barrel. Investors are shifting their focus to major upcoming economic and corporate catalysts, specifically the August Consumer Price Index inflation report and Apple Inc.'s product launch event alongside after-the-bell corporate earnings.