Stock market all-time highs are not the danger zone investors think they are: Chart of the Day

The S&P 500 (US SP 500) notched its 10th record close of the year. Historical analysis since 1928 shows that closing at an all-time high is not a clear danger signal: the median one‑year gain after record highs was 9.6% versus 9.5% after non-record days, and the one‑year ‘win rate’ (market higher) was about 70% in both cases. Over five years median gains were roughly comparable (about +44% after highs vs +47% after non-record closes). However, risks remain: the typical worst drawdown in the year after a record close is roughly 6%, the worst observed was a 45% slide, and the index fell at least 10% within a year about one‑third of the time. The piece concludes that new highs often reflect sustained momentum and aren’t by themselves a reason to sell, though they warrant checking the market setup.