Stifel cuts 2026 Macau gaming revenue forecast

Stifel trimmed its 2026 Macau gaming revenue growth forecast, citing April’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) of 19.89 billion patacas (~$2.6bn) that rose 5.5% year-over-year but missed the 9% consensus and fell 12% sequentially. The firm now expects 2026 GGR growth of 5%–9% (midpoint roughly 9% below 2019 levels), broadly in line with ConsensusMetrix’s 7.4% view. Stifel highlighted strong visitation that has exceeded 2019 levels but weaker mass spend per visitor and VIP volumes at about 30% of 2019. The firm forecasts May GGR up 6%–10% (around 12% below 2019) and Q2 growth of 4%–8% year-over-year. The downgrade and ongoing below-2019 comparisons suggest continued pressure on Macau operators’ earnings and valuations, which currently trade at discounts to historical norms. Near-term catalysts include promotional activity by operators and the May Day holiday, which could lift visitation but may not fully restore mass segment spending.